Aaron Judge leads all MLB sluggers in home run probability for Tuesday's slate of games, with simulation data giving the Yankees star a 24.1% chance to go deep against the Angels on June 17, 2025.
The power rankings don't stop with Judge. Giancarlo Stanton, Judge's teammate in the Bronx, sits just behind him with a 23.8% chance to hit one out of the park, while Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber rounds out the top three at 20.7%.
"The Yankees-Angels matchup at Yankee Stadium looks particularly homer-friendly for Tuesday night," a betting analyst might note, considering the heavy New York presence atop the rankings.
Interestingly, the simulations identify Max Muncy of the "Athletics" as today's best value bet despite not cracking the top 10 in raw home run probability. Muncy, who will face Houston's Jason Alexander when the "Astros" visit Oakland at 10:05 PM ET, offers significant betting value at +700 odds with a 15.6% chance to homer—representing a 3.1% edge according to the projections.
The predictions come from comprehensive data analysis involving 10,000 simulations per matchup, accounting for critical factors like weather conditions and pitching matchups. Not a bad sample size, right?
Fans have plenty of action to follow Tuesday with 13 games on the schedule, starting with the "Phillies" visiting the "Marlins" at 6:10 PM ET and concluding with the "Astros"-"Athletics" clash in Oakland.
Other notable sluggers in the mix include Cal Raleigh and Brent Rooker, both ranking among the top 10 most likely to homer on Tuesday.
With Judge's Yankees hosting Ohtani's Angels in primetime, will we see multiple balls leaving the yard in the Bronx tomorrow night?
