Shohei Ohtani leads all MLB sluggers with a 20.8% chance to hit a home run on Monday, July 7, 2025, according to the latest prediction data. The power-hitting star tops a list that includes Kyle Schwarber (20.6%) and Mike Trout (17.9%) as the most likely players to go deep in Monday's slate of games.
These projections aren't just random guesses. Each prediction comes from sophisticated analysis that ran 10,000 simulations per matchup, taking into account crucial factors like weather conditions and pitching matchups.
While the big names dominate the top of the list, it's actually Luis Matos of the "Giants" who stands out as Monday's most intriguing betting opportunity. Despite not cracking the top 10 in home run probability, Matos offers significant value at +1300 odds when facing the "Phillies" at 9:45 PM ET.
By the way, Matos will be going up against pitcher Cristopher Sánchez in that matchup, creating what analysts have identified as a 3.9% edge for bettors - making him potentially the smartest home run bet of the day.
Other notable sluggers appearing in the top 10 predictions include Hunter Goodman and Fernando Tatis, though their exact percentages weren't specified in the data.
Monday's MLB schedule features eight games, including matchups between the "Marlins" and "Reds," "Rockies" and "Red Sox," plus the "Dodgers" taking on the "Brewers." Later games include the "Rangers" facing the "Angels" - a matchup that could showcase Trout's power-hitting abilities.
The predictions aim to identify not just who's most likely to hit home runs, but where the betting value lies. Will Ohtani deliver on his league-leading 20.8% chance? Or might Matos be the surprise of the day with his undervalued odds?
