Scottie Scheffler enters the TOUR Championship as the overwhelming favorite to defend his title at East Lake Golf Club. The world's dominant golfer brings a remarkable 34.9% win probability to Atlanta for the final event of the FedExCup Playoffs, scheduled for August 21-24.
After chasing down Robert MacIntyre to secure a two-stroke victory at the BMW Championship last week, Scheffler has firmly established himself as the man to beat. His spring campaign featured dominant performances at both the PGA Championship and The Open Championship.
"No starting strokes this year means everyone begins at even par," as East Lake introduces a significant format change after six years of the staggered start system. This levels the playing field considerably for the 30-man field competing for the massive $40 million purse.
Tommy Fleetwood emerges as Scheffler's primary challenger with an 8.3% win probability. The Englishman has been knocking on the door lately with a string of near-misses, including runner-up finishes and consistently strong performances. Could this finally be the weekend he breaks through for his first PGA TOUR victory?
Other top contenders include Rory McIlroy (7.1% win probability), who's chasing a record-breaking fourth FedExCup championship after capturing his long-awaited Green Jacket this year. Russell Henley (4.4%) and Robert MacIntyre (3.2%) round out the top five most likely winners according to predictive models.
East Lake Golf Club returns to its traditional par 70 layout stretching 7,440 yards with four par 3s and just two par 5s. The most significant change involves the 14th hole, which reverts from a 580-yard par 5 back to a challenging par 4. This adjustment creates one of the course's most demanding stretches and could prove pivotal in determining this year's champion.
Despite the course's inherent challenges, East Lake has yielded impressive scoring in recent seasons, with the 2024 average dropping to 68.62. The wide fairways benefit strong drivers, while water hazards come into play on eight holes.
With course familiarity playing a crucial role and veterans holding a distinct advantage, all eyes remain fixed on Scheffler as he attempts to cement his dominant season with another signature victory. But with every player starting at even par, this year's TOUR Championship promises to be one of the most competitive finales in recent memory. Who will claim the FedExCup and the massive payday that comes with it?
