Carlos Prates looks to rebound from his recent setback when he faces welterweight veteran Geoff Neal on the UFC 319 undercard this Saturday at Chicago's United Center.
The Brazilian striker enters the bout as a clear favorite over Neal, despite coming off his first UFC defeat against Ian Machado Garry. That loss appears to have been a wake-up call for the talented 31-year-old, who now faces a critical test against one of the division's established gatekeepers.
Prates brings an impressive 21-win record to the octagon, with 16 of those victories coming by stoppage. His explosive Muay Thai style has made him a fan favorite, though his willingness to engage often leaves him absorbing significant damage in return.
The physical advantages clearly favor Prates, who stands 6-foot-1 with a three-inch reach advantage over Neal. His 83% takedown defense should also help neutralize any wrestling attempts from his opponent.
Neal, meanwhile, enters this contest looking to build momentum after snapping a two-fight losing streak with an injury stoppage win over Rafael Dos Anjos. The heavy-handed striker has struggled to find consistency, posting a 3-4 record since 2020.
By the numbers, Prates lands 3.60 significant strikes per minute, though his -1.19 differential highlights his defense-optional approach. Can he tighten up those defensive gaps against a power puncher like Neal?
The oddsmakers clearly favor the Brazilian, installing him as a -210 favorite heading into Saturday's clash. For a fighter with Prates' finishing instincts, this matchup against a veteran who's shown vulnerability could be exactly what he needs to get back on track in the welterweight division.
Will Prates make the necessary adjustments after his loss to Garry? Saturday night in Chicago will tell the tale.
