Alex de Minaur enters Sunday's ATP Canadian Open round of 16 match against Frances Tiafoe with statistics firmly in his corner. The advanced tennis model, after running 10,000 simulations, gives the Australian a 64% chance of victory compared to Tiafoe's 36% probability.
"Using the most recent data, we ran 10,000 simulations of Sunday's Tiafoe-de Minaur match," explained data analyst Greg Butyn. "After accounting for recent updates and other variables, our prediction shows Alex de Minaur with a win probability of 64%."
The detailed breakdown reveals de Minaur also holds a 61% chance of claiming the first set against Tiafoe, suggesting a potentially strong start for the Australian when they face off.
Interestingly, this matchup represents one of the more anticipated clashes in the round of 16, with both players fighting to secure a quarterfinal spot in the prestigious Canadian tournament.
The battle between these two contrasting playing styles is scheduled for Sunday, August 3, 2025, with a 12:30 PM Eastern Time start (9:30 AM Pacific). By the way, tennis enthusiasts should mark their calendars, as this mid-day clash could prove decisive in determining who advances deeper into the tournament.
Will de Minaur's statistical advantage translate to an actual victory on the court? Tennis, after all, isn't played on paper - and Tiafoe has proven himself capable of upsetting the odds throughout his career.
