Aryna Sabalenka enters her upcoming match against Rebeka Masarova as the overwhelming favorite, with data analysts giving her an 85% chance of advancing to the quarterfinals at the Berlin tournament. The highly anticipated round of 16 clash is scheduled for Wednesday, June 18, 2025, at 11:30AM ET.
"We have simulated the outcome of Wednesday's Sabalenka-Masarova match 10,000 times," Dimers data analyst Greg Butyn explained. "With the latest updates and numerous other variables, we estimate Aryna Sabalenka's chance of winning at 85%, with Rebeka Masarova at 15%."
The sophisticated predictive model doesn't just favor Sabalenka for the overall match - it also gives her a 79% probability of claiming the first set, suggesting Masarova might struggle from the outset.
Interestingly, this data comes from extensive machine learning simulations that ran the match scenario 10,000 times to generate these probabilities. The German Open contest represents a significant hurdle for Masarova, who finds herself with long odds against one of the tour's top performers.
Can Masarova defy the numbers and pull off what would be a substantial upset? The statistics certainly don't favor her chances, but tennis matches aren't played on paper.
The action kicks off at Berlin's German Open on Wednesday morning, with both players looking to secure a coveted spot in the quarterfinals. For tennis enthusiasts, this match presents a classic contest between a heavy favorite and an underdog hoping to create a memorable moment in her career.
