Scottie Scheffler heads to TPC River Highlands as the overwhelming favorite for the 2025 Travelers Championship, despite coming off a disappointing performance at Oakmont's U.S. Open. The world number one will be looking to defend his title at the final signature event of the season, which boasts a massive $20 million purse and 700 FedExCup points for the winner.
The tournament in Cromwell, Connecticut marks a return to regular PGA TOUR play after the demanding U.S. Open challenge, where Scheffler managed to battle back for a T7 finish behind champion JJ Spaun.
Analysts are giving Scheffler a remarkable 25.2% chance of winning this week – quite the vote of confidence. And why not? He's been nearly unstoppable this season, dominating the PGA Championship in May and tying the PGA Tour's lowest 72-hole record at a mind-boggling 31-under at the CJ Cup Byron Nelson.
The field, however, is stacked with talent. Rory McIlroy, fresh off completing his career Grand Slam with that memorable Masters win in April, enters with a 4.1% win probability. Rory's form has been inconsistent lately, though – missing the cut at the Canadian Open and struggling to a T47 at the PGA Championship before a mediocre T19 at the U.S. Open.
Collin Morikawa (3.8%), Xander Schauffele (3.5%), and Tommy Fleetwood (3.3%) round out the top five contenders according to predictive models.
Fleetwood, interestingly, might be the value bet of the week at +3500. The Englishman has been remarkably consistent this season with Top 25 finishes in 10 of 13 events and strong performances in three of his last six tournaments.
TPC River Highlands, while one of the shortest tracks on tour at just 6,844 yards, presents its own challenges with thick four-inch rough and smaller-than-average greens. The closing stretch around the lake on holes 15-17 often proves decisive.
Expect a stark contrast from last week's brutal Oakmont conditions – this course typically yields plenty of birdies. The average winning score over the past three years has been 21-under par, and let's not forget Jim Furyk's record-setting 58 here in 2016.
With 72 golfers in this no-cut event, who will navigate this Pete Dye redesign most effectively? Scheffler remains the man to beat, but at those odds, the smart money might be looking at value plays like Tommy Fleetwood, Russell Henley (+4000), or even Ben Griffin (+5500), who's riding hot form with recent finishes of T8, 1st, 2nd, and T10.
Can anyone stop Scheffler from adding another trophy to his 2025 collection? We'll find out this weekend in Connecticut.
