Jacobe Smith enters this weekend's UFC 317 preliminary card as a massive betting favorite against veteran Niko Price, with oddsmakers installing the UFC newcomer at a staggering -2500 line ahead of their welterweight clash at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
The preliminary card features several intriguing matchups that might offer better betting value than the main card, which is headlined by featherweight champion Ilia Topuria challenging former lightweight champion Charles Oliveira.
Price, known for his reckless but entertaining fighting style, has historically struggled to absorb punishment – five of his eight career losses have come by knockout. His opponent Smith showcased devastating power in his UFC debut against Preston Parsons earlier this year, following a highlight-reel knockout on Dana White's Contender Series.
In the heavyweight division, Jhonata Diniz (-350) squares off against late replacement Alvin Hines in what should be a technical striking affair. Diniz possesses some of the most refined kickboxing skills in the heavyweight division – comparable to technical strikers like Ciryl Gane and Alexander Volkov – but has shown significant vulnerabilities when taken to the ground.
"The betting line in the Diniz fight suggests a clear favorite, but his grappling deficiencies make the over 1.5 rounds prop at -120 particularly appealing," noted one betting analyst familiar with the card.
The women's flyweight bout between Tracy Cortez and Viviane Araujo rounds out the featured prelims, with Cortez entering as a -220 favorite. Cortez hasn't competed since her July 2023 loss to Rose Namajunas, while the 38-year-old Araujo comes off a victory over Karine Silva last November.
Interestingly, despite Cortez's favorite status, her path to victory appears narrow – primarily through a decision win (-200) rather than a stoppage. Araujo's durability and experience make her a tough out, though she's shown a tendency to fade in later rounds.
Can any of these underdogs pull off an upset? With the volatile nature of MMA, particularly in the prelims where fighters are often hungrier to make statements, Saturday's action could deliver some surprising results as UFC 317 unfolds in Las Vegas.
